AGP Executive Report

AI Infrastructure Push: Kazakhstan signed a $10bn AI deal with Nvidia-backed Firebird to build “Data Center Valley” near Ekibastuz, with a first $5bn phase (including $1bn from Kazakhtelecom) targeting 125MW and commercial operations in 2027, plus ambitions for up to 300MW+ and export revenue. Politics & Parties: Kazakhstan’s long-dominant Amanat voted to merge into the pro-presidential Adilet party, shifting the ruling network into a new vehicle tied more closely to President Tokayev. Energy & Industry: Solico Group will build a large cheese plant in Almaty region, aiming for 155,000 tons of cheese annually and about $70m investment, as Kazakhstan expands value-added dairy processing. International Diplomacy: Tokayev welcomed a US-Iran framework deal to end the war, halt the blockade, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling it crucial for regional stability. Regional Cooperation: EU and Central Asian envoys met in Almaty to coordinate Afghanistan-focused steps on security and connectivity, with Kazakhstan backing UN-led humanitarian and development efforts. Tourism: Akmola Region expects around 2 million tourists this year as Burabay expands routes, hotels, and safety upgrades.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s new 21st Russia sanctions proposal could complicate an EU-India trade deal, with listings targeting 50 companies across several countries, including Kazakhstan, and a July 15 deadline for unanimous approval. Diplomacy & Travel Rules: Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry says the EU’s Entry/Exit System pilot is now in force, with new border data collection for short-term travelers and visa-free visitors. Aviation Links: Kazakhstan and South Korea are preparing to sign an air communication agreement to enable direct flights, with a 2026 timeline. US-Kazakhstan Aviation Step: Kazakhstan is set to remove FAA “remarks” to open direct air communication with the United States, aiming to boost tourism, business and investment. Regional Cooperation: The SCO marks 25 years since its 2001 launch, evolving from a security forum into a broader Eurasian cooperation platform. Business & Finance: Kazakhstan’s AIFC is engaging Hong Kong for more mining dual listings, after a landmark case last year. Rights & Justice: KazTAG editor Amir Kassenov made his first statement after house arrest ended, while separate reporting alleges rights violations in pretrial detention for Mansur Movlaev. Energy & Water: Kazakhstan is seeking US Bureau of Reclamation help to cut agricultural water losses using digital metering and telemetry. Mining Update: Sarytogan Graphite has started a diamond drilling campaign at its Ilkin copper prospect in central Kazakhstan.

EU Sanctions Watch: A new EU sanctions package targeting Russia-linked drone and trade support could complicate an EU-India trade deal, with Kazakhstan among countries named in the proposal. Tourism & City Life: Astana launched tourist transport cards sold at the airport, offering 5/10/15-ride options so visitors can ride buses immediately without app sign-ups. Security Incident: Almaty police detained a man after finding a knife and a training grenade-like device; experts said it posed no danger, and authorities are checking his claims. Energy & Industry: Ampo will supply 85 high-pressure valves for Karachaganak field upgrades, supporting gas reinjection and trunkline expansion. Regional Trade: Kazakhstan-linked shipments are boosting Trans-Caspian dry cargo flows, with Port of Baku dry cargo up 77% in Jan–May, including more non-ferrous exports from Kazakhstan. Culture & Heritage: Archaeologists in Turkistan Region unearthed rare Kangly-era artifacts and unusual burials, including inscriptions on ceramics. Politics & Diplomacy: Tokayev sent birthday greetings to Trump, stressing expanded strategic ties with the US. Sports: Kazakhstan’s volleyball campaign at the AVC Women’s Cup ended after a loss to Chinese Taipei, while South Korea swept the final.

EU-India Sanctions Shock: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add firms linked to India and also names entities tied to Kazakhstan, raising uncertainty for a major EU–India trade deal that needs unanimous approval. Trade & Industry Push to Sweden: Kazakhstan is working to expand non-commodity exports to Sweden and the EU, focusing on cutting technical barriers, easing customs, and boosting industrial cooperation. Astana–Central Asia Cultural & Heritage: Archaeologists in Turkistan Region report rare Kangly-era artifacts and unusual burial practices, including inscriptions on ceramics. Politics & Party Realignment: Kazakhstan’s AMANAT congress approved a merger with ADILET, while Ak Zhol elected Daniya Yespayeva as its new chair. EU Relations: European Parliament figures welcomed Kazakhstan’s political modernization and reforms tied to the new Constitution. Tech & Finance: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan discussed using AI for financial supervision, including digital dashboards and stress-testing tools. Sports (Kazakhstan in focus): Chinese Taipei beat Kazakhstan to reach the AVC Women’s Cup final, ending Kazakhstan’s unbeaten run. Culture on Screen: Kazakh film “Qaitadan” won Grand Prix at the Bishkek Film Festival.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s proposed 21st sanctions package targets 50 Russia-linked firms and includes entities based in India, potentially complicating an EU-India trade deal that both sides are trying to ratify. Regional Security Angle: A new analysis argues the SCO’s real value is coordination across different political systems, not perfect agreement, as cross-border threats keep moving faster than governments. Sports — Volleyball: Kazakhstan’s unbeaten run in the AVC Women’s Cup ended when Chinese Taipei beat them in the semifinals, booking a first-ever final berth; South Korea also advanced after dismantling Vietnam, setting up a Korea-Taipei title match. Tech & Finance: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan discussed using AI for financial supervision, including digital dashboards and stress-testing tools. Business & Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Sweden held talks on expanding trade and industrial cooperation, while Kazakhstan’s Alatau City signed with the Solana Foundation to push blockchain innovation.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU unveiled its 21st Russia sanctions package, targeting 50 companies linked to the military-industrial complex, with listings that could complicate an EU-India trade deal now awaiting unanimous approval. Visa and Mobility: Kazakhstan says nearly half of Kazakh citizens are denied U.S. visas, while Astana and Brussels push ahead on visa facilitation and readmission talks. Border Security: Kazakhstan’s Senate endorsed the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan state border regime agreement, setting rules for crossings, border incidents, and cooperation in the border zone. Water and Climate Cooperation: Kazakhstan and France are advancing a long-term master plan to protect Lake Balkhash, including digital tools and basin management work. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. held its first in-person Critical Minerals Dialogue with Central Asia in Astana as Washington seeks to reduce dependence on China-controlled supply chains. Regional Health Policy: Central Asian states wrapped consultations on “One Health” implementation, aiming to finalize a strategic regulatory package for the next regional coordinating council meeting. Sports (Kazakhstan): Kazakhstan beat Vietnam in the AVC Women’s Cup to end Vietnam’s 23-match streak and top Pool B ahead of semis.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add entities based in India and also lists firms tied to Kazakhstan and other countries, with unanimous approval needed across all 27 member states before it can take effect. Border Security: Kazakhstan’s Senate ratified the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan agreement on the state border regime, setting rules for border maintenance, crossings, flights, and incident prevention. Visa Pressure: Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry says nearly half of Kazakh citizens are denied U.S. visas, while talks with the EU move to a new stage on visa facilitation and readmission. Jobs & Wages: The government’s 2026–2029 plan targets up to 240,000 quality jobs annually by tackling wage gaps and expanding training and microloans. Mining Push: Kazakhstan plans about $470mn in geological exploration in 2026–2028, aiming to build a modern, tech-driven geology sector. Lake Balkhash: Kazakhstan and France advanced a long-term plan to protect Lake Balkhash, including climate and water-management research. Education Reform: President Tokayev signed laws to protect teachers’ rights and adjust related administrative rules.

AVC Women’s Volleyball: Kazakhstan stunned defending champions Vietnam in the AVC Women’s Cup, handing them their first loss with a 18-25, 25-19, 23-25, 25-22, 15-13 comeback to finish Pool B unbeaten and top their group. Sports & Safety: A “spidercam” cable camera malfunctioned and fell during a Hungary–Kazakhstan match in Debrecen, narrowly missing a cameraman; no injuries were reported. Energy Markets: CPC oil exports from Kazakhstan hit a May record, with loadings rising to about 1.83 million bpd as Tengiz output recovered after maintenance. Governance & Security: The Senate approved an amnesty law in two readings, and President Tokayev expanded State Security Service powers to use weapons without warning in anti-terror zones. Environment: Kazakhstan and France advanced a long-term master plan to protect Lake Balkhash, with interim findings presented and a final strategy expected by year-end. Aviation: FlyArystan will launch Urgench–Almaty flights starting September 3, 2026, twice weekly. Public Safety: Kazakhstan confirmed the death of a 21-year-old student found drowned on Italy’s coast, with embassy assistance to the family underway.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: Kazakhstan used the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress to push a shift from raw extraction to processing and higher-value manufacturing, with U.S. officials saying Washington is moving from talks to execution and a new U.S.–Kazakhstan critical minerals push framed around supply-chain resilience. Rare Earth Deal: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia signed an MoU on cooperation in rare earths and critical minerals, covering expertise exchange and work across the mining value chain. Lake Balkhash Plan: Kazakhstan and France are drafting a long-term master plan to preserve Lake Balkhash amid climate and water concerns. Banking & Ratings: Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) received BBB foreign-currency ratings from CI Ratings with a stable outlook. Food Exports: Kazakhstan’s grain and flour exports rose 13% year-on-year to 12.2 million tonnes (Sep 2025–Mar 2026). Public Safety: Police in Aktobe are hunting a newborn’s mother after two 11-year-old girls found the baby in a bin bag under a tree. Environment & Disaster Response: Kazakhstan unveiled a prototype specialized firefighting vehicle for forest fires, built after the 2023 Abai wildfire.

EU Supply-Chain Shift: The European Commission is considering tougher rules to cut dependence on single suppliers in sensitive sectors, including rare earth risks tied to China—potentially creating openings for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to move beyond raw-material exports. Kazakhstan-U.S. Minerals Diplomacy: President Tokayev met U.S. envoy Sergio Gora, reaffirming the expanded strategic partnership and highlighting C5+1 cooperation on critical minerals, with Tokayev also looking ahead to a Miami meeting with Trump. Alatau City Meets Hong Kong Capital: Hong Kong business leaders signed six MOUs to back Kazakhstan’s Alatau City hi-tech hub, with deals focused on innovation, AI and digital finance, following 61 earlier agreements. Regional Diplomacy: The Majilis ratified a Kazakhstan–Kyrgyzstan deal allowing free use of embassy buildings and land plots for 49 years. Media Rights in Court: A lawyer says the closed trial of KazTAG editor-in-chief Amir Kassenov could amount to censorship, while Kassenov’s side signals readiness for mediation. Industrial Push: Kazakhstan is moving toward deep processing and high-value production, with new ammonia–urea capacity and other industrial projects aimed at reducing imports and boosting exports.

Investment & Justice: Kazakhstan plans to appoint regional investment prosecutors and set up a Prosecutor General’s Office platform to settle investor disputes before they reach court, aiming to improve the investment climate and protect both domestic and foreign investors. Transport & Trade: Kazakhstan and Russia will launch a vehicle ferry service across the Caspian Sea between Kuryk and Makhachkala to pull cargo off existing routes and add new transit options. Digital Transit: Kazakhstan is pushing more of its logistics system online to cut border delays and speed freight processing, including unified electronic standards and smarter monitoring. US-Kazakhstan Ties: The U.S. opened a new round of C5+1 critical minerals talks in Astana, with focus on mining, processing, mapping, and supply chains. Regional Connectivity: The Trans-Caspian Forum kicked off in Washington with Kazakhstan among participants, highlighting the Middle Corridor, energy and critical minerals, and digital transformation. Higher Education & Sport: The International Judo Federation signed an MoU to bring judo development into Kazakhstan’s higher education system. Law & Safety: Kazakhstan is considering tougher penalties for repeat stalking, including up to five years in prison for systematic harassment. Tech & Mobility: Samsung Wallet now supports digital passports in Kazakhstan, expanding mobile identity use for travel. Sportswashing & Culture: A Vatican-linked Astana bishop argues the SSPX dispute is about truth, not just liturgy. Sports Incident: A “spidercam” malfunction during a Hungary–Kazakhstan friendly narrowly missed a cameraman, briefly halting play.

EU Sanctions: The EU announced its 21st package of Russia-related sanctions, including a temporary freeze on the Russian oil price ceiling and new restrictions targeting firms in third countries, with Kazakhstan-based companies named among those affected. Education Corruption: A Kazakhstan survey says corruption in the education system (31.5%) and insufficient teacher qualifications (30.8%) are the biggest barriers to improving secondary education. Freedom Holding Debt: Freedom Holding Corp., controlled by Timur Turlov, says its liabilities to an unrelated client have nearly tripled to $2.36 billion in a year, according to its SEC filing. Energy Transit: Kazakhstan says it is ready to increase Russian gas transit to Uzbekistan, with talks ongoing and infrastructure conditions determining the scale. Public Safety: Three teenagers drowned after swimming in a prohibited area on the Maly Uzen River in West Kazakhstan; the incident is under investigation. Air Travel: Air Astana launched seasonal flights to Cyprus (Larnaca) from Astana and Almaty. CIS Consular Talks: Kazakhstan took part in a CIS consultative council meeting in Minsk focused on consular cooperation and legal assistance. Migration Snapshot: Kazakhstan ranked top in the CIS for people considering moving abroad in the 2026 Immigration Index. Regional Development: Tokayev met the akim of Abai Region, reviewing socio-economic results and investment growth.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU is proposing its 21st Russia sanctions package, including a broad visa ban on former Russian combatants and new export controls tied to drones and military supply chains; listings would also hit firms in China, Türkiye, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, the UAE and India. Public Health: Kazakhstan’s Health Ministry says it will tighten control over dispensing antibacterial drugs as antibiotic resistance grows, citing ongoing problems like antibiotics sold without prescriptions. Trade & Borders: Kyrgyzstan returned 8.6 tons of pepper to Kazakhstan after a phytosanitary certificate discrepancy was found at the Ak-Zhol post. Space Tourism: Kazakhstan is speeding up access to Baikonur Cosmodrome permits, cutting approval to 10 days to boost foreign tourism. Politics at Home: Kazakhstan’s party landscape is entering a decisive week, with Amanat and the newly registered Adilet both holding congresses in mid-June, raising questions about how the pro-presidential coalition may reshape. Regional Environment: Workshops in Shymkent and Almaty focus on water-quality standards and building capacity to develop Green Climate Fund concept notes across Central Asia.

Customs Overhaul: Kazakhstan will introduce new rules for purchases on foreign marketplaces, keeping duty-free treatment for orders up to €200 but changing how higher-value parcels are declared—adding a 5% customs duty and 16% VAT for amounts above the threshold, with e-commerce operators handling a new “e-commerce goods” declaration format. Disaster Insurance Dropped: The government removed a draft law on mandatory housing insurance against natural disasters from its 2026 legislative plan. Sanctions Risk at Freedom Holding: Freedom Holding Corp. says its subsidiaries hold about $187.8m in liabilities tied to customers linked to sanctioned individuals/entities, according to a recent SEC filing. Earthquake Watch: A quake was recorded near Almaty—111 km southeast of the city—prompting low-intensity readings in nearby villages. Health Update: Kazakhstan’s healthcare ministry reports infant mortality has fallen 7.5 times since independence, citing expanded child health funding and early-intervention programs. Business Simplification: A new one-click service will let employers calculate and pay payroll taxes and social contributions automatically. Regional Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s partners in the Eurasian space—Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia—pledged deeper trilateral cooperation in Istanbul. Sports: Kazakhstan kept its AVC Women’s Cup semifinal hopes alive with a win over Iran, while Kazakhstan’s futsal player Ilya Burtovoy died after a traffic crash.

U.S.-Kazakhstan Trade & Human Rights: The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed new Section 301 tariffs tied to forced-labor import rules, with rates of 10% or 12.5% depending on each country’s progress, and a July 6 comment deadline. Regional Security & Diplomacy: Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia signed the Istanbul Declaration, reaffirming trilateral cooperation across politics, trade, security, energy and connectivity. Energy Markets: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output by 188,000 barrels per day, including Kazakhstan’s share, though analysts warn the Strait of Hormuz and other disruptions may limit real market impact. Customs & Travel: Uzbekistan warned of temporary queues at the Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan border due to technical maintenance on Kazakhstan’s customs IT systems. Water & Environment: Kazakhstan says it has sent 6.16 billion cubic meters of water into the Caspian Sea since January, as the region faces continued water-level decline. Business & Technology: Kazakhstan and Shell launched a pilot to digitize and analyze geological archives using a modern GIS platform. Sports: Kazakhstan’s women beat Iran in the AVC Women’s Cup, keeping semifinal hopes alive.

Energy & Markets: Brent jumped more than 4% to above $97 after Iran’s attacks on Israel and renewed worries around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil Policy: OPEC+ approved a fourth straight July output quota increase of 188,000 bpd, but analysts say it may be mostly symbolic while the strait remains effectively blocked—Kazakhstan is among the seven core members. Aviation: Air Astana will resume Dubai flights from Almaty (from June 20) and from Astana (from July 10), routing via Pakistan due to Iranian airspace closure; Cathay Pacific also plans direct Almaty flights from early 2027. Tenge & Rates: National Bank chairman Timur Suleimenov said base-rate cuts won’t weaken the tenge, pointing to the 17% base rate’s appeal and stronger oil/metal prices. Business & Investment: Freedom Holding flagged Kazakhstan’s tax reform as a risk in a U.S. SEC filing, while an Investor Rights Protection Committee under the Prosecutor General says it is helping investors across 3,000+ projects worth over 100 trillion tenge. Tech & Industry: HKEX signed MoUs with Kazakhstan’s AIFC and AIX to boost capital-market links; Hyundai Engineering won a Kazakhstan gas processing plant award.